Which Taliban are we talking about?
Mullah Omar's Taliban,
the Afghan leader or Emir of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before
September 2001. His right hand man, Tayyab Agha, heads the Taliban
mission in Qatar. Other principal Taliban and Afghan opposition factions
include the Haqqani faction, the TTP or Pakistani Mehsud faction and
the Hekmatyar faction in the North East.
Those close to Mullah Omar's Taliban say the vast majority of Taliban support him.
International
representatives close to the process say while that may be true,
powerful groups like the Haqqani's could continue an insurgency even if
Mullah Omar makes peace with Kabul.
Why would the Taliban talk now?
The civil war that the
Taliban had all but won in 2001 has gone into remission with the
presence of international forces. If the Taliban were to fight for the
whole country again they may not do so well.
The civil war bubbles
beneath the surface and should it resurface the former northern warlords
who have profited from the U.S. presence would make a Taliban fight for
supremacy much harder. In short, they may get a better deal at the
table than the battlefield.
Why has it taken so much time to get talks going?
Afghan President Hamid
Karzai on several occasions felt bypassed by back door U.S.
conversations with the Taliban in Qatar. He reportedly blocked progress.
The Taliban also walked out on talks when Taliban prisoners at the U.S.
base in Guantanamo Bay were not released as they had expected.
Where is Mullah Omar and why's that important?
He is widely believed to
be in Pakistan unable to move freely without Pakistan's approval.
That's what his supporters believe although Pakistan has denied it.
Pakistan wants a say in Afghanistan's future. If Afghanistan drifted
towards Pakistan's arch enemy India, its sphere of influence would be
upset.
What influence will Pakistan have on the talks?
Mullah Omar's
representative Tayyab Agha could not have established an office in Qatar
and be in a position to talk to Afghans and Americans without
Pakistan's permission. That's the understanding of some in the Taliban
at least.
Pakistan's intelligence
agency, the ISI, has long been accused by Afghan President Karzai and
U.S. officials of supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan. The ISI denies
that.
What hiccups can we expect?
Karzai says the next talks must be in Afghanistan. That is unlikely to sit well with Pakistan.
But just to get to this point has been very difficult. For the talks to work all sides will need to be committed.
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